Theresa Might faces a frightening activity to get her Brexit deal ratified by Parliament after it was rejected by 230 votes. It has not been made simpler by the truth that the 118 Tory rebels who voted towards her on Tuesday cannot agree on another plan.
Does that imply it is useless? Most likely in its present kind, however Mrs Might is clearly not giving up on it simply but. It’s on life assist till somebody can give you one thing they’ll all agree on.
Here’s a record of the principle Tory factions and the place they stand on Brexit.
The BBC’s researchers have give you estimates for what number of belong to every group.
It must be famous that some MPs have cited a number of causes for voting towards Mrs Might’s deal, whereas others have centered extra on the choice deal they would favor – and 7 Tory MPs have been silent, so far as we will inform, on their purpose for opposing the deal.
Theresa Might’s deal
Quantity: 202 (contains three Labour MPs and three Independents)
Tuesday’s vote was backed by 196 Tory MPs, together with about 100 on the ministerial payroll.
Lest we overlook, it might see the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union, with a lot of the element of how that might work in observe being labored out after 29 March, when a 21-month transition interval would kick in.
It additionally ensures residents’ rights and commits the UK to paying a £39bn “divorce invoice”. There may be additionally the small matter of the Northern Eire backstop, however extra of that later.
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Scrap or time restrict the backstop
Estimated quantity: 45
The Irish border “insurance coverage coverage” is the poison tablet stopping the Democratic Unionist Celebration from backing Mrs Might’s deal. Loads of Conservative MPs wish to see it scrapped, though some might get by with a time restrict on it.
Mrs Might would in all probability drop the backstop in a heartbeat if she thought she might however it isn’t actually in her fingers. She would wish to persuade the EU to comply with it and that appears unlikely proper now.
The ‘higher deal’ group
Estimated quantity: 39
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis has been banging the drum for a Canada-style free commerce deal for a while now – and he’s not alone. Different ministers who stop the cupboard in protest at Mrs Might’s deal, together with Boris Johnson, are additionally within the Canada camp.
They need Theresa Might to make use of her thumping defeat on Tuesday as a bargaining chip to have one final go at getting a greater deal out of Brussels. If she will be able to’t handle that, then she ought to step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, they argue.
Canada has a looser buying and selling association with the EU than the one being proposed by Mrs Might however with “zero tariffs and nil quotas” on all imports and exports.
Mr Davis desires what he calls “Canada plus plus plus” – the identical deal as Canada however further provision for monetary companies.
Mrs Might has at all times dominated out the Canada possibility, arguing that it might not resolve the Irish border situation.
However these MPs assume the Irish border situation has been overblown.
Go away and not using a deal
Estimated quantity: 17
A no-deal Brexit is the popular place of dyed-in-the-wool Eurosceptics similar to Sir Invoice Money (pictured), who dismiss fears of financial meltdown as “undertaking worry” and demand Britain might thrive beneath World Commerce Group guidelines. Some cupboard members have mentioned there may be nothing to worry from a no-deal Brexit, though they are saying they would favor a deal.
Mrs Might has refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit, although she doesn’t need it to occur. However as issues stand, Britain will depart and not using a deal on 29 March if MPs cannot agree on another.
Maintain one other referendum
Estimated quantity: 9
Main rebels, similar to Dominic Grieve and Sarah Wollaston, have come out in favour of this feature – though extra could also be ready within the wings.
Mrs Might couldn’t have been extra clear in her rejection of one other referendum. However the choice may very well be taken out of her fingers, if the Labour management bought behind this feature, creating a probable parliamentary majority for it. That is a reasonably large “if” as issues stand, nonetheless.
Estimated quantity: 1
Robert Halfon voted towards the deal as a result of he prefers the Norway possibility however different supporters of it voted for Mrs Might’s deal.
The Norway mannequin is about as shut as you may get to the EU with out really being a member state.
A softer Brexit that might see the UK remaining within the customs union could be one thing majority of MPs would assist, though few Tory MPs have publicly backed it.
It will trigger anger amongst Tory Brexiteers however they’ve misplaced the flexibility to eliminate Mrs Might in a management contest, after final yr’s failed confidence vote led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.
There may also be cupboard walkouts, among the many extra ardent Brexiteers, however Mrs Might has ridden these out earlier than.